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The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, by Richard Duncan
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The first book to confront the imminent dollar crisis
Given the current global economic situation, a dollar crisis seems imminent. It is predicted that the series of financial and currency crises in recent years will soon culminate in the collapse of the U.S. dollar, facilitating a worldwide economic slump. This timely and challenging book brings together the origins of this crisis and the solutions that will help counter global imbalance. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, The Dollar Crisis is a highly relevant guide for all markets, since the collapse of the U.S. dollar will result in global destabilization impacting capital markets everywhere.
Richard Duncan (Hong Kong) has worked as a financial analyst in Asia for more than fifteen years. During his career, he has worked for leading companies such as Salomon Brothers, HSBC Securities, International Monetary Fund, and The World Bank.
- Sales Rank: #700852 in Books
- Published on: 2003-06-25
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.39" h x .98" w x 6.34" l, 1.33 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 280 pages
Review
"...a provocative new book..." (Grant's, 15 August 2003)
"...we strongly recommend...the man seems to have hit the nail right on the noggin..." (The Daily Reckoning)
"...is impeccably researched...provides a useful resume of how the dollar came to be the dominant force in world currency markets..." (www.iii.co.uk (AMPLE), 6 January 2004)
From the Inside Flap
The world economy is sinking into the worst industrial and financial downturn since the 1930s. Stock markets are plunging, major corporations are going bankrupt, and governments are begging for bailouts from the IMF. In The Dollar Crisis, Richard Duncan explains the nature and the origin of the imbalances that have destablized the global economy.
The books theme is that the global economy has been destabilized by the United States' enormous trade deficit which now exceeds US$50 million. . . AN HOUR or 1.5% of Global GDP per annum. That trade imbalance, financed through debt, has created tremendous disequilibrium in the global economy and an economic bubble in the United States. When that bubble pops and the global economic disequilibrium unwinds, the world will not be able to avoid a very serious economic slump.
The Dollar Crisis is divided into four parts:
Part One describes how the US trade deficits have destabilized the global economy by creating a world-wide credit bubble.
Part Two explains why these giant deficits cannot persist and why a US recession and a collapse in the value of the Dollar are unavoidable.
Part Three analyzes the extraordinarioy harmful impact that the US recession and the collapse of the Dollar will have on the rest of the world.
Part Four offers original recommendations that, if implemented, would help mitigate the damage of the coming worldwide downturn and put in place the foundations for balanced and sutainable economic growth in the decades ahead.
The Dollar Crisis is a must read for investors, bankers, brokers, exporters, economists and anyone else who wants to understand what has gone wrong with the world economy.
From the Back Cover
"A sobering, timely wake-up call to the looming dangers of a massive - critically necessary - correction in the U.S. Richard Duncan writes with immense clarity and experience, weaving historical material into a rich tapestry of disturbing patterns, warning that the world cannot afford to ignore the lessons of Asian and Latin American financial crises - and Japan's malaise - as an even greater economic threat looms. A must read, with economic seat belt buckled." - David H. Satterwhite, Managing Director, The Economist Conferences Corporate Network-Japan
"Richard Duncan has written a fascinating study of history in the making. He is right to propose that we need joint efforts by different stakeholders to overcome a coming monetary crisis." - Frank J. Richter, Director, Asia, World Economic Forum
"Hard on the heels of the collapse of the "new economy" is that of the "new finance". Richard Duncan crisply explains why payback time for years of US?s credit excesses, payments imbalances and securitized sub-par lending is imminent. Mr Greenspan, your time is up. The wisdom of Ludwig von Mises will prevail." - Philip Bowring, Columnist, International Herald Tribune
"Make no mistake - much of the discontent with the global financial system is rooted in the dollar standard. The risk of a dolar crisis is real and the author deserves much praise for clearly exposing a force that many seek to deny. A must read for anyone with a savings deposit." - Jesper Koll, Chief Economist, Merrill Lynch Japan
"This is a welcome attempt at exploring the symptoms of what may become a major financial storm. Is the world wise to expect the problem to find its own solution? Richard Duncan?s suggestions for a cure imply a degree of worldwide slump that may prove difficult to foster, but his arguments are worth listening to." - Philippe Delhaise, President, Capital Information Services Ltd
Most helpful customer reviews
72 of 72 people found the following review helpful.
The Downside of the Dollar Standard
By Izaak VanGaalen
Since the breakdown of Bretton Woods in the early 1970's and the end of the gold standard, the dollar has become the international reserve currency. The 20 years prior to 1970 international reserves increased only about 55%, but since 1970, with the adoption of the dollar standard, reserves have increased over 2,000%. This is primarily a result of US current account deficits, which last year ran about $600 billion - about 3% of GDP. Asian central banks hold about $2 trillion US dollar-denominated reserve assets. This surge in international reserves has created huge imbalances and it is the subject of this book by financial analyst Richard Duncan.
The dollar standard has allowed the US to finance incredibly large deficits by printing more dollars. The dollar standard has on the upside ushered in the age of globalization that has allowed Asian economies - first Japan, then the Tigers, and now China - to devolop by exporting to the US without importing equal amounts, leaving Asian central banks with large stockpiles of dollar reserves. And what can Asian central banks do with these reserves? About the only thing they can do is invest in US corporate stocks and bonds, T-bills, and US agency debt such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (We've been enjoying low mortgage rates because the Asian central banks buy up our debt so we can take out more.) And all these investments in return allow US consumers to buy more of their exports - call it vendor financing.
According to Duncan, these current account deficits and current account surpluses have already wrought havoc with the world economy: it caused the asset and stock market bubble in Japan in the 1980s; it caused the currency crisis in Malaysia and Thailand in the 1990s (Duncan was an analyst working in Thailand at the time and correctly predicted its occurence); and it is currently fueling the real estate boom in the US.
Asia's export-led strategies require that dollar reserves are reinvested in the US; this prevents their currencies from appreciating. Indeed, if the Bank of China or the Bank of Japan were to invest in the Euro or any other currency, the bankers and politicians of those countries would quickly protest because it would drive up their currencies and make their exports less competitive.
So then with the US increasing the world's international reserves at a rate of $600 billion a year, everyone is still happy for the time being. Asian countries are growing rapidly and American consumers have endless supplies of credit - using their homes as ATMs - however, this imbalance, unsustainable and in the long run, will precipitate an economic crisis. Even correcting this imbalance, if not done prudently, could precipitate a world economic slowdown.
This book was written before the recent decision by China to stop pegging the yuan to the dollar. This was a baby step in the right direction.
Duncan's analysis of the problem is very good, his policy recommendations, however, are questionable. He suggests, for example, giving global central bank status to the International Monetary Fund. That's a nonstarter for reasons obvious to Republicans. He also advocates a global minimum wage, giving workers more money to soak up excess supply. I can already hear the critics screaming no "world government."
The main problem that needs to be addressed - and Duncan stresses it many times - is that there needs to be a regulatory mechanism in foreign-exchange markets. Central banks intervene in currency markets for their own benefit - such creating an export strategy - instead of looking for ways to smooth global business cycles. China, with its revaluation of its currency, is looking to become a responsible global player - we hope. If the powers that be do not act in concert to coordinate a soft landing of the current imbalances, we will all be heading for some frightening times.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A key element in maintaining a rounded knowledge of finance!
By Bobby Jones
In this book, Richard Duncan describes the inherent instability that underlies the contemporary global financial system.
This instability has arisen due to the abandonment of the gold standard in the early 70's by US president Nixon and has recently culminated in a near collapse (foretold although not chronicled in this book)of the system. The ability to borrow is now only limited by a countries perceived ability to repay its loans and as a result the US has ammassed an enormous deficit.
Up until now the deficit has been driven by a viscious circle of China's recycling of its export (to the US) surpluses into US debt securities, in turn leading to an ever widening US deficit. Fortunately this will be counterbalanced in time to come by a decrease in competitiveness in China's exports due to structural labour shortages and a rise in minimum wages. Additionally China's stated imperative is to increase its citizens standard of living and shift from an export driven economy to one driven by internal consumer demand.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Are you brave enough to read this book
By Eric Harris
I never studied Economics at college so this book became my 101 and explained in depth why foreign countries, until recently, kept buying our US Treasury Notes even though they knew we were trillions of dollars in debt. Intuitively I suspected the current bull market was on borrowed time but this book spells out in detail how our current relative affluence is about to end and nothing can stop this train wreck from happening. This train wreck is not just the end of the latest bull market but the beginning of a severe recession and depression. Richard Duncan brings together the separate catastrophes of Peak Oil, Global Warming, the Collapsing Dollar and the Loss of its Reserve Currency Status and, the Lack of American Savings to clearly explain why the good times are about over. So be warned that this book is not a comfortable read. If like me you are wanting to absorb the message quickly, rather than try to nit pick his findings, then I would fault his over-use of charts and data tables. I started skipping them after I realized they were extra detail and not essential to the theme of the book.
Richard Duncan goes to lengths to explain how we are part of a global economy and gives a plausible reason why the only way out of the coming depression, which mainly is the result of severe trade imbalances between the US/Europe and ASEAN countries, is for these third world exporting countries to raise their living standards. This will likely mean an internationally agreed minimum wage for all forms of labor. Only by using a flat playing field can free trade occur as it is intended to.
Other informative books to read in this gendre are "Crash Proof" by Peter Schiff (Dr Doom)Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
and
The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel by Dr. Stephen Leeb.
Having read these and other publications I am now cashing in all my diversified US Dollar denominated investments held by a major Wall Street investment house, in order to buy quality foreign stocks and bonds directly from foreign stock exchanges using their own strong currencies. There are ways explained in this book on how to mitigate the coming extreme pain but we will all suffer a diminished life style.
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